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The Compound Years · Issue #7 · August 2026

Decisions on a ten-year clock

Most of what felt urgent this week will not matter at ten years -- and the few things that will, almost never feel urgent.

01The experiment

Applied for the Naughton Scholarship even though the odds said I could not win.

The honest version is that I almost did not submit. The application took a weekend, the rejection cost me nothing, and the upside was years of compounded support. I genuinely think that is the cleanest ten-year-clock decision I have made -- cheap downside, asymmetric upside, ego the only real obstacle.

02The lesson

The calls that mattered were only obvious years after I made them.

Reading frameworks about long-term thinking does almost nothing. The dataset that taught me was applying for things I expected to lose, shipping apps I expected to flop, and tracking which ”small” calls I made at twenty-two turned out to be the load-bearing ones at twenty-five.

03The founder

Warren Buffett buys for twenty-year horizons and ignores the quarterly noise.

Buffett famously holds Coca-Cola, American Express, and See’s Candies for decades while everyone around him trades the next earnings report. His advantage is not better information -- it is a longer clock. He once said his favourite holding period is forever, and he meant it.

04The mindset

Most ”urgent” is somebody else’s clock being borrowed for the afternoon.

I ask myself one thing when something feels urgent: is this on my ten-year clock or someone else’s afternoon? Most of the time, it is the afternoon. And recognising that -- calmly, without drama -- is the discipline I am still trying to build.

05The question

What is one decision on your desk this week that will not matter at ten years?

Hit reply and tell me. I read every one.


Forward to one person who is stuck on a decision that does not actually matter.

-- David